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EMME - Earthquake Model of the Middle East region:
Hazard, Risk Assessment, Economics & Mitigation

The number of people died in earthquakes and tsunamis worldwide in the last decade is about half a million, based on recent statistics. The majority of this life loss occurred in developing countries where population and urbanization is increasing rapidly without any major control, there by also yielding a high risk for the future. The Middle East region is located at the junction of major tectonic plates, namely the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates, resulting in very high tectonic activity. Some of the major earthquake disasters in human history occurred in the Middle East, affecting most countries in the region. Being one of the most seismically active regions of the world, Middle East, extending from Turkey to India, is also a key region in terms of urbanization, energy reserves and industrialization trend. The region under consideration involves world’s most populated capitals and cities with key economical importance such as Istanbul, Baghdad, Tehran, Jeddah, Riyadh, Cairo, Kabul, Karachi and Lahore.


Seismic Hazard of the region (UN Global Seismic Hazard Program ,GSHAP, 1999)

EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) aims at the assessment of earthquake hazard, the associated risk in terms of structural damages, casualties and economic losses and also at the evaluation of the effects of relevant mitigation measures in the Middle East region in concert with the aims and tools of GEM. The EMME project will encompass several modules such as the Hazard Module, Seismic Risk Module, Socio- Economic Loss Module and the development of an IT infrastructure or platform for the integration and application of modules under consideration. The methodologies and software developments within the context of EMME will be compatible with GEM in order to enable the integration process. As such, a comprehensive interaction between the two projects is foreseen.

EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) is a JTI (Japan Tobacco International) sponsored international project aiming at the assessment of seismic hazard, the associated risk in terms of structural damages, casualties and economic losses and also at the evaluation of the effects of relevant mitigation measures in the Middle East region.
Vision

Over 420,000 people died worldwide in the last 8 years due to earthquakes and tsunamis. Most of the deaths occurred in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth and urbanization. By 2050, the whole projected global population increase – over 3 billion people – will concentrate in urban areas in developing countries. In addition, while large urban areas are doubling in size every 15 years, the area of unchecked settlements built without appropriate seismic safety provisions is increasing every 7 years.

The Middle East region, extending from Turkey to India, is a key component of the urbanization trend. The list of cities compiled by the UN forecasted to reach a population exceeding 5 mil inhabitants by 2015 (and in some case reaching much higher numbers, in excess of 20 mil) includes capitals and cities of key economic importance in the Middle East area: Istanbul, Baghdad, Tehran, Jedda, Riyadh, Cairo, Kabul, Karachi and Lahore.



The Middle East region is characterized by elevated seismicity. The tectonic activity is dominated by the convergence of the African and Indian Ocean plates with the Eurasian plate, resulting in a very active belt of earthquakes affecting the whole margin from Turkey to the Himalayas



Some of the major earthquake disasters in human history occurred in the Middle East, affecting most countries in the region.

List of major earthquakes in the region

Date Location Country Fatalities
1138 Aleppo Syria 230’000
856 Damghan Iran 200’000
893 Ardabil Iran 150’000
1948 Ashgabat Turkmenistan 110’000
2005 Kashmir Pakistan 87’000
1667 Shamakhi Azerbaijan 80’000
1727 Tabriz Iran 77’000
1990 Manjil Iran 35’000
1939 Erzincan Turkey 33’000
2003 Bam Iran 30’000
1988 Spitak Armenia 25’000
1999 Izmit Turkey 25’000


Particularly worrisome is the destruction produced in recent earthquakes, often affecting also modern buildings constructed with seismic provisions (below an example from the 1999 M7.6 Izmit earthquake, Turkey), a clear sign that society has yet to learn how to cope with large earthquakes.
As consequence of the probability of earthquake occurrence, of the often poor construction standards and of the lack of proper mitigation strategies, the Middle East is the most seismically exposed region worldwide, where a devastating earthquake could produce up to a million casualties.

The overall aim of EMME is to enable earthquake risk mitigation in the region in terms of damages, casualties, and socio-economic losses through homogenization of the seismo-tectonic information, uniform computation of the earthquake hazard, compilation of data regarding the built environment and uniform assessment seismic risk and increase awareness in the region through proper dissemination and capacity building.
emme-gem.org


Strategy

EMME will set a uniform, independent standard for earthquake hazard and risk assessment at a national and regional scale. Its implementation will be based on a combination of national and regional elements, and will integrate developments on the fronts of scientific and engineering knowledge as well as IT processes and infrastructure.

EMME development will focus on three integrated modules on seismic hazard, risk and economics, and one transversal action of capacity building and outreach.

Integration and harmonization across the whole region and all the activities of the project, and technology transfer in particular, is critical for EMME tools to achieve uniformity, efficiency, and relevance. This goal will be secured through different measures.

Training

Technology transfer will occur through regular training sessions, both in-person workshops and distance learning. Training workshops will be hosted at all regional centers, with most training workshops scheduled to occur at primary regional centers. Distance learning will also be hosted by the regional centers. Scientists and technical personnel from the participating institutions will be trained in aspects of data archiving and exchange, in the routine analysis of earthquake data, and in the assessment of seismic hazard, risk and losses.
Expert participation

National experts from all countries of the Middle East will participate in working groups and expert elicitation, bringing together their expertise while learning from other experts in the area.

Global integration

EMME roots in the past Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, a UN-IDNDR demonstration project, 1992-1999) where some of the Middle East countries (notably Iran, Tuerkey and India) worked actively towards the development of common regional standards. However, political and technical constraints prevented from tackling the whole Middle East region with a harmonized approach in GSHAP. More than a decade later, EMME will develop common standards in close coordination with GEM (the new Global Earthquake Model initiated by the OECD), with the new European project for hazard harmonization (EC FP7 SHARE), and will coordinate efforts with the central Asia countries through a program sponsored by the German Foreign Affairs.

Objective

EMME aims to enable earthquake risk reduction through the following specific objectives:

•Calculate earthquake hazard uniformly and with the highest standard

• Rigorously validate earthquake and shaking probabilities using regional and global data

• Communicate earthquake risk clearly, accurately, and transparently to all users
• Integrate local expertise in a regional and global context

• Monitor and update changing infrastructure and vulnerability

• Build capacity in the whole region

• Dialogue with decision-makers
• Implement EMME as part of the Global Earthquake Model program initiated by the OECD


EMME will enable users to take specific actions that achieve risk-reducing outcomes:
• Improved earthquake preparation and response

• Adoption and enforcement of building codes

• Seismic mitigation measures

• Accurate post-earthquake alerts and assessment of direct and indirect losses

• Increased insurance usage

• Uniform comparability of earthquake risk across multiple geographies


EMME’s long-term expected impact will be a more structured approach to earthquake risk mitigation, leading to reduced monetary losses and casualties. Improved building construction practice and efficient risk allocation will lead to overall reduction of losses. Governmental policies for risk mitigations will be based on wider awareness and on more sound, integrated knowledge. Furthermore, a more robust post-earthquake financial infrastructure will reduce the reliance of developing nations on charity, thus speeding their recovery and avoiding a downward spiral of environmental hazards and economic development.


EMME will be a living model, rather than a static map, with a flexible, modular architecture to allow addition and updating of components and datasets, and to maintain it continuously as state-of-the-art and in conformance with national developments and new international standards. EMME will allow multiple user types to derive updated products and outputs, and keep up with changing requirements.


The users and beneficiaries of EMME are broad, and include all those who make decisions based on earthquake risk: seismic agencies, engineers and practitioners, government officials, insurance and finance industries, emergency responders, risk professionals, homeowners, investors, and the population at large.
Governance

Directors

EMME is jointly directed by Prof. D. Giardini, SED/ETH Zurich, and by Prof. Mustafa Erdik, KOERI Istanbul.

Steering Committee

A Steering Committee (SC) is installed, with the role of providing overall guidance, ensuring contractual obligations and quality control, maintaining institutional contacts with other participating and interested organizations, monitoring the international relevance and long-term impact of the project. The Steering Committee is composed by senior representatives of the Consortium partners.

Steering Committee Members:

D. Giardini Switzerland SED/ETH
M. Erdik Turkey KOERI
F. Rahme Representative of the Sponsor JTI
H. Hamzehloo Iran IIEES
T. Chelidze Georgia ACNET
Lt. Gen. F. Khan Pakistan NDMA
M. Ashtiany Iran IASPEI
R. Sinha India IIT

Managers

The EMME managers are Yesim Biro, located at SED/ETH Zurich, and Dr. Karin Sesetyan and Dr. Cuneyt Tuzun, located at KOERI Istanbul. The tasks of Biro focus on reporting, controlling, payments and contacts with the sponsor. The tasks of Dr. Sesetyan and Dr. Tuzun focus on the coordination of regional activities in the Middle East, and on helping in the organization of workshops and meetings. The managers will coordinate activities and engage jointly on QA, communication, PR and outreach activities.

WP Leaders and Management Committee

The Management Committee (MC) is composed of WP leaders and does not overlap with the Steering Committee members. The WP leaders will assure the coordination and transfer of data and knowledge among the WPs, and will pay special attention to assure balanced distribution of the WP effort within the region. The WP leaders represent the whole region in their activities, not the individual countries.


GEM1

One of GEM’s central initiatives is to develop software and online tools as required to achieve its overall goals. As the first step in GEM development, a prototype for GEM software and models will be built, with the working name of “GEM1.”

GEM1 is a focused pilot project to generate GEM’s first products and develop GEM’s initial IT infrastructure, that started in January 2009 and will end on 31st March 2010. GEM1 will provide core capabilities for the present and key knowledge for future development of the full GEM computing environment and product set. GEM1 will be developed using existing tools and datasets, connected through a unified IT infrastructure, in order to bring GEM’s initial capabilities online as rapidly as possible.
More information about the current progress of the GEM1 project can be found on the GEM1 wiki: http://gemwiki.ethz.ch/wiki. The GEM1 effort is carried out by five core institutions: ETHZ, EUCENTRE, GFZ, NORSAR and the USGS.

The lessons learned during GEM1 will be an integral part of future GEM development. GEM1 will adapt current best practices in software development and project management (e.g., central systems to store source code, test software, and track project issues and progress) to the GEM environment. GEM1 also will provide the first Web based interfaces for GEM’s computational systems; user testing and feedback will help us focus GEM’s future interfaces for user-defined practical problem solving. Taken together, all these aspects of GEM1 will help target GEM’s IT infrastructure and accelerate its development significantly.

To facilitate the integration of EMME outputs with GEM, EMME will adopt the IT infrastructure and data format standards developed in GEM1. As GEM1 will evaluate all possible IT tools and data formats for earthquake hazard and risk assessment, the results obtained and lessons learned during GEM1 will serve as a guideline for the activities carried out in EMME.

Web site: : http://gemwiki.ethz.ch/wiki.


Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe

SHARE is a Collaborative Project in the Cooperation programme of the Seventh Framework Program (FP7) of the European Commission (EC). SHARE will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. The consortium will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model including specific scenario based modeling tools.

The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole Europeanterritroy, the Maghreb countries in the Southern Mediterranean and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.

SHARE will produce direct outputs for risk assessment, enabling European participation in GEM.

Website: www.share-eu.org

Coordinator: Prof. Dr. D. Giardini, d.giardini@sed.ethz.ch
Project manager: Dr. J. Woessner, j.woessner@sed.ethz.ch

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Highlights
• WP4 - ELER Training Workshop [updated]
• WP1- WP2- WP3 Joint Workshop
• GEM releases Risk RfPs [deadline 18 March]
• WP Coordination Meeting, 5- 7 December 2009
• GEM Survey
• 7 September 2009 Georgia ( Sak’art’velo ) Earthquake
• EMME Implementation Plan
• SCCM Meeting 26-28 May 2009