(GSHAP) Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program

(GSHAP) Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program

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CLOSING Report TO THE IDNDR/STC 1992 - 1998

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GSHAP HISTORY | DESIGN PRINCIPLES | SUMMARY OF REGIONAL ACTIVITIES | THE GSHAP MAP OF GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD
5 YEARS OF GSHAP WORKSHOPS | GSHAP GLOBAL PROGRAMS | COORPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES | FUNDING
STEERING COMMITTEE | SUCCESSES & FAILURES | Acknowledgments
Appendix I: Index, GSHAP Summary Volume, Annali di Geofisica, 1999 | Appendix II: List of GSHAP Contacts | Appendix III: Acronyms --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) was launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP) with the support of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and endorsed as a demonstration program in the framework of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR).

In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promotes a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation; the ultimate benefits are improved national and regional assessments of seismic hazards, to be used by national decision makers and engineers for land use planning and improved building design and construction.

The GSHAP was implemented in the 1992-1998 period and is coming to conclusion. All regional activities are now completed, and the publication of all regional results and of the GSHAP map of global seismic hazard is under way.

Regional reports, GSHAP yearly reports, summaries and maps of seismicity, source zones and seismic hazard are on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/. This report summarizes the development, the regional activities and the achievements of the GSHAP.


GSHAP HISTORY
8.91 following the ICSU request to provide scientific input for IDNDR demonstration activities, ILP initiates the planning and preparation for the GSHAP
3.92 the UN/IDNDR Scientific and Technical Committee endorses the GSHAP as a Decade demonstration project
6.92 the GSHAP is launched with a Technical Planning Meeting in Rome, to focus the consensus of the scientific community on the development of a multi-national and multi-disciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment, to define schedule and structure of the program
92-93 the first year is devoted to the definition and implementation of the regional and management structure, the establishment of the program in the international scientific and engineering communities, the coordination with other UN/IDNDR activities, the establishment of a funding strategy
7.93 the GSHAP Volume is published (Annali di Geofisica, vol. 36, 3-4), containing all program documents, a revision of the existing status-quo in global seismic hazard and the technical guidelines for the GSHAP implementation
93-95 The first implementation phase is devoted to implement the key strategic elements of the program: the operation of regional centres in all continents and the activation of multinational test areas for seismic hazard assessment in regions of high seismotectonic significance
8.95 program evaluation (Boulder, IUGG Assembly)
95-97 the second implementation phase extends the GSHAP coverage to more test areas and regions covering the most of the world
8.97 regional results are presented and evaluated in a special meeting (Thessalonicki, IASPEI Assembly); plans for the final phase of GSHAP are drawn
97-98 the final phase focuses on the completion of regional hazard assessment, on the compilation of all regional databases and results, on the compilation of the GSHAP map of global seismic hazard, on the dissemination of GSHAP products and materials (special volumes, maps, CD-ROM, web)
6.99 publication of the GSHAP Summary volume
7.99 the GSHAP map of global seismic hazard is presented at the IDNDR Closing Conference in Geneva


DESIGN PRINCIPLES

The GSHAP has been designed as a Decade demonstration project, adopting and implementing the following design principles:
Hazard assessment is the primary input for the implementation of risk mitigation strategies
Scientific research is a key to engineering applications
Maintain high scientific standards
Ensure consensus and enlarge participation at all levels
Enforce a multi-disciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment
Work across boundaries
Enhance the role of developing countries
Ensure technology transfer
Focus on key geographical and border areas
Ensure the implementation of regional and global results in national policies


SUMMARY OF REGIONAL ACTIVITIES
To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP strategy established in Roma in 1992 has been to establish a mosaic of regions under the coordination of chosen of regional centers. The goal in the first implementation phase (1993-95) was to compute the seismic hazard in selected test areas, and to then expand in the second phase (1995-97) to cover whole continents and finally the globe. This strategy has been maintained in many of the originally established ten regions, while elsewhere the activities focussed directly on key test-areas under the coordination of large working groups. Some areas, specifically the Mediterranean and the Middle East, have been covered by a mosaic of overlapping projects, while elsewhere (i.e. parts of Africa and of the Western Pacific rim) the hazard mapping was obtained only at the end of the program by using published materials.
In specific cases GSHAP allied with existing hazard projects with similar purpose and methodologies, to avoid duplications and strengthen the across-boundary cooperation (i.e. in the Balcans and Near-East).

Following the Rome 1992 guidelines, the general rule has been to establish for each region or test area a working group of national experts covering the different fields required for seismic hazard assessment, to produce common regional catalogues and databases and to assess regional hazard.

GSHAP was globally coordinated in the 1992-97 period by ING, Roma, in the final 1997-99 period by ETH, Zurich.

The following list and the map illustrate the global coverage of GSHAP, separating GSHAP Regions (outlined in black in Figure), Test Areas (blue) and Cooperating Projects (green).




GSHAP Regions
1. Central-North America
2. South America (CERESIS)
3. Central-Northern Europe
6. Middle East (Iran)
7. Northern Eurasia
8. Eastern Asia
10. South-West Pacific
GSHAP Test Areas
Northern Andes (PILOTO)
Caucasus (CAUCAS)
Adriatic Sea (ADRIA)
East African Rift
India-China-Tibet-Myanmar-Bangla Dash
Ibero-Maghreb
Cooperating Projects
Mexico-C. America-Caribbean-S. America (PAIGH-IDRC)
Circum Pannonian Basin (EU-QSEZ-CIRPAN)
Eastern Mediterranean (RELEMR, USGS/UNESCO)
Mediterranean (SESAME, IGCP 382)

In the following we summarize the GSHAP regional activities in 1992-98. Maps, catalogues, databases and reports are found on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.



MIDDLE EAST (GSHAP Region 6)


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The Regional Centre at IIEES, Tehran, has coordinated activities in the area with a direct involvement in the CAUCAS test area and with workshops organized in Tehran (1/93), Ashgabad (10/94) and Tehran (5/95). These activities will continue in the future, and the SEE-3 conference, scheduled in Tehran for May 1999, will include a session on regional seismic hazard.

NORTHERN EURASIA (GSHAP Region 7)


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The GSHAP Regional Centre in Moscow, JIPE, is coordinating the seismic hazard mapping for the whole territory of the former USSR. A five-year program, initiated before the FSU break-up and interrupted during the period of more intense political turmoil, has been restarted, leading to the compilation of the seismic catalogue and the SHA, using for the first time a probabilistic approach. Technical workshops are held routinely in Moscow. The area has been subdivided in five blocks, and the regional hazard maps in MSK were completed in 1998.

IBERO-MAGHREB


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GSHAP has promoted the reactivation of the former ESC program. Activities to produce a first generation of SHA for the Ibero-Maghreb area by 1997 have been coordinated by the CSIC of Barcelona. Workshops were held in Granada (5/94), Rabat (12/95) and Barcelona (12/96, 5/97), with partial support from IGCP/SESAME, the first in occasion of the UNESCO/USGS "6th Int. Forum on Seismic Zonation: First Ibero-Maghreb Region Conference". In 1996 the CNCPRST of Rabat, the GSHAP Regional Centre, became the "Centre Euro-Mediterraneen d’Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment (CEPRIS)" under the Open Partial Agreement on Natural Disasters of the European Council, with the mandate of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean areas.

ADRIA


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This project includes all countries bordering on the Adriatic Sea, from the Alps to Greece, coordinated by OGS of Trieste. A new geodynamic model for the whole Central Mediterranean the seismic zoning map, the combined earthquake catalogue and the new hazard maps, in spectral ground motion parameters, have been compiled during a series of regional workshops (Trieste 7/94, Athens 9/95, Ljubliana 10/95, Pisa, 2/9 and presented in Tel Aviv at the ESC (8/9.

EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN


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GSHAP, the UNESCO/IUGS IGCP n.382 (SESAME: Seismotectonics and seismic hazard assessment in the Mediterranean), the European Seismological Commission (IASPEI) and the UNESCO/USGS RELEMR are coordinating their activities, to produce a unified hazard mapping for the area, including Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Peninsula. In 1996 SESAME organized its first "Training workshop on seismotectonics and seismic hazard analysis in the Eastern Mediterranean countries" in Cairo (12/96); a second workshop was held again in Cairo (12/97) focussing on the compilation of the active fault map and regional SHA. RELEMR includes hazard mapping from Turkey to the Red Sea; following initial planning meetings in Cairo (10/93) and Paris (5/95), technical meetings and regional coordination meeting were held jointly with SESAME in Cyprus (12/96, 12/97), Thessalonicki (8/97), Amman (5/9 and Tel Aviv (8/9 to produce the first regional PGA map, under the coordination of ETH Zurich. The PGA maps for Turkey, Greece and Iran have been independently produced under national programs. In the last workshop organized by RELEMR in Istanbul (10/9, a new strategy to build common earthquake catalogue, source zones and hazard has now been established for the whole region.

CAUCAS


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The Test Area for SHA in the Caucasus is coordinated by GSHAP with IASPEI and INTAS support (Ct.94-1644), joining seismological institutions from the Caucasian republics, Russia, Turkey and Iran. Starting in 1994, multinational working groups produced an integrated regional earthquake catalogue (historical and instrumental), a new model of seismic lineaments and seismic zoning, and comparative SHA following probabilistic, deterministic, mixed probabilistic-deterministic and areal probabilistic methodologies. Workshops were held in Tehran (1/93), Moscow (9/93), Ashgabad (10/94), Tehran (5/95), Yerevan (7/96) and Tbilisi (7/97). A comprehensive report has been distributed in 1997, summarizing the results. The NATO-ARW "Historical and prehistorical earthquakes in the Caucasus" (Ct.95-1521) was held in Armenia (7/96) and produced a comprehensive proceedings volume published by Kluwer.

AFRICAN RIFT


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The "Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Seismological Working Group", with support from the Swedish Government, Bergen University, the BGS, IASPEI and GSHAP, held periodic workshops to compile the regional earthquake catalogue and SHA for the African Rift area. Workshops were held in Entebbe (8/94), Addis Abeba (1/95), Bulawayo (2/96) and Bergen (6/97), and the regional PGA map is now available; for the first time eight of the nine participating countries have a national seismic hazard map, including site-specific hazard estimates for the capital cities along the Rift. A second initiative was directed by the Regional Centre at the University of Nairobi, who organized a regional planning meeting in Nairobi (11/93) and hosted the UNESCO/GFZ "International Training Course in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment" (Nairobi, 9/97).


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The UNESCO/IUGS International Geological Correlation Program n.382 "Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Mediterranean" (SESAME) has the goal of coordinating and integrating the results obtained in the Mediterranean and Middle East regions by the different project active in the areas: ADRIA, Ibero-Maghreb, Circum-Pannonian, Eastern Mediterranean, Central-Northern Europe, African Rift, CAUCAS. SESAME is implemented in the 1996-2000 period and has so far co-sponsored many of the events in the different regional programs, culminating in the first compilation of regional hazard presented at the 1998 ESC assembly (Tel Aviv, 8/9. A separate program "A basic european earthquake catalogue and database for the evaluation of long-term seismicity and seismic hazard" (BEECD, EU Ct. 94-0479), coordinated by IRRS of Milan, has produced a regional seismic catalogue covering the European part of the Mediterranean, in coordination with the GSHAP activities listed above.


THE GSHAP MAP OF GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD

The GSHAP global map of seismic hazard (PGA) is being completed in the winter 1999, integrating the results obtained in the regional areas. Four of the GSHAP centres acted as focal points to collect and merge the existing results in four large continental areas: USGS, Colorado, for the Americas; GFZ, Potsdam, for Europe-Mediterranean-Africa-Middle East; SSB, Beijing, for Central-Eastern Asia; AGSO, Canberra, for Australia-Western Pacific margin. Global coordination was provided by ETH, Zurich. The final phase of global reunification is now under way to complete the global map for inclusion in the GSHAP volume and for global distribution. An editorial commettee has prepared technical specifications for the final compilation of the regional reports, the databases and the hazard maps. All work is to be completed in the spring 1999.


5 YEARS OF GSHAP WORKSHOPS
A key factor in the GSHAP implementation have been the technical workshops, organized in occasion of major international assemblies and more often as independent events to bring together national experts from all the disciplines involved in the assessment of seismic hazard. These meetings were held at project or inter-project scale, with up to a hundred and more participants. The following list reviews the sequence of workshops, as detailed in the regional activities above. Rome, 6/92 Tehran, 1/93 Potsdam, 7/93 Moscow, 9/93
Beijing, 10/93 Ixtapa, 4/94 Granada, 5/94 Trieste, 7/94
Brasilia, 8/94 Entebbe, 8/94 Nairobi, 9/94 Ashgabad, 10/94
Beijing, 10/94 De Bilt, 12/94 Addis Abeba, 1/95 Wellington, 1/95
Tehran, 5/95 Boulder, 7/95 Erice, 8/95 Athens, 9/95
Bogota, 10/95 Ljubliana, 10/95 Melbourne, 11/95 Rabat, 12/95
Bulawayo, 2/96 Hyderabad, 3/96 Yerevan, 7/96 Tangshan, 8/96
Reykjavik, 9/96 Cairo, 12/96 Cyprus, 12/96 Barcelona, 12/96
Bogota, 1/97 Venezuela, 2/97 Barcelona,5/97 Quito, 6/97
Bergen, 6/97 Tbilisi, 7/97 Thessalonicki,8/97 Cyprus, 10/97
Cairo, 12/97 Pisa, 2/98 Amman, 5/98 Golden, 7/98
Tel Aviv, 8/98 Istanbul, 10/98 Hyderabad, 12/98



GSHAP GLOBAL PROGRAMS
Another key element of the GSHAP implementation is the pursue of activities and tasks devoted to the improvement of the global practice of seismic hazard assessment.
Uniform instrumental global seismic catalogue


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With the aim of extending the global instrumental earthquake catalogue and database, now available since 1964 (ISC, NEIC), to cover the whole century, work is in progress at USGS and the University of Colorado, on the digital scanning and processing of the ISS and BCIS Bulletins; the relocation of a uniform global catalogue is under way, using modern travel-times and location procedures used at NEIC.

Software for seismic hazard assessment


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The goal of across-boundary integration of seismic hazard databases and products was identified in the Rome 1992 planning meeting as crucial to the global implementation of GSHAP. The "seismotectonic probabilistic approach" was selected as a standard for global SHA application, to allow the comparison and integration of regional maps and zonations. To implement this strategy, an integrated software package dealing with all the steps of seismotectonic hazard computation, FRISK88M, has been made available free of charge by Risk Engineering for GSHAP applications to all test areas and regional centres.

Multidisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment


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The global evaluation of seismic hazard requires the characterization of the earthquake cycle over recurrence times spanning from 10-102 years in active tectonic areas to 103-105 years in areas of slow crustal deformation. A primary goal of GSHAP has been the implementation of a multisciplinary approach to seismic hazard assessment introducing the results from geological disciplines dealing with active faulting (neotectonics, paleoseismology, geomorphology, geodesy) to complement the historical and instrumental records of earthquakes. This goal has been pursued with several initiatives:
The adoption of the seismotectonic probabilistic approach for global application reflects the aim to incorporate the geological input to characterize the earthquake recurrence in space and time.
The workshop on "Active Faulting Studies for Seismic Hazard Assessment", held in Erice (Sicily, 9/95), brought together specialists in active faulting studies with seismologists and engineers responsible for developing assessment methodologies and for leading major national seismic hazard programs from all continents, to explore new trends in active faulting studies and verify the extent to which the geological input is being used in seismic hazard assessment practice. The workshop produced a document of recommendations, which is being circulated worldwide.
GSHAP and the ILP Projects "II-2: Maps of major active faults" and "II-3: Earthquakes of the late Holocene" have joint activities under way and scheduled for 1995-97, including the 1996 NATO/ARW "Historical and pre-historical earthquakes in the Caucasus" and the "training course in paleoseismology and active faulting in South America" in 1997.
Scientific articles illustrating strategies and examples in multidisciplinary seismic hazard assessment have been published on proceedings volumes and scientific journals; among these, the GSHAP Volume (Annali di Geofisica, vol. 36-3, 1993) includes seminal papers on the integration of the geological input in seismic hazard assessment.



COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES
The implementation of GSHAP relied on the cooperation with several international scientific agencies, commissions and programs.

International Lithosphere Program (ILP)


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ILP has launched GSHAP (ILP Project II-0) and established its worldwide operation. The integration between GSHAP and the ILP Projects "II-2: Maps of major active faults" and "II-3: Earthquakes of the late Holocene" was planned since the beginning and joint activities were conducted, as listed above.
Internat. Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI)



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Seismic hazard assessment is a multidisciplinary effort geared at integrating the input from different geophysical and geological disciplines represented in IUGG and IUGS; however, the traditional affiliation of seismic hazard is within IASPEI and here GSHAP has found the largest support. Several IASPEI commissions and working groups had an active role in the GSHAP implementation: the "Commission on Earthquake Prediction and Hazard" run jointly with GSHAP the Caucasus test area, the "Committee for Developing Countries" and the "Commission for the IDNDR" have been kept closely informed and involved in GSHAP activities, the "Working Group on Earthquake Risk and Losses" is active within the RELEMR program and held joined activities in Moscow (10/93), the "European Seismological Commission" is effectively coordinating GSHAP activities in the larger European-Mediterranean area, allocating special sessions to GSHAP within its annual assemblies, and the newly formed "Asian Seismological Commissions" has done the same in the Asian region.

UNESCO


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UNESCO is very active in the field of seismic risk assessment and mitigation and has provided overall support to GSHAP activities. In particular, GSHAP worked in close coordination with three UNESCO programs:
the UNESCO/USGS program "Reduction of Earthquake Risk in the Eastern Mediterranean Region" is integrated in the framework of regional test areas activated by GSHAP in the larger Mediterranean area;
the UNESCO/IUGS International Geological Correlation Program n.382 "Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean" is one of GSHAP test areas;
GSHAP participated in the UNESCO/GFZ "International Training Courses in Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment "in 1995 in Costarica and in 1997 in Kenya.


International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU)


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GSHAP is one of the programs selected by the ICSU Committee for IDNDR as scientific contribution to the IDNDR. ICSU has been very supportive of GSHAP since its beginning, providing guidance, encouragement and managing funds which have helped to promote GSHAP activities in several key areas.

International Association of Earthquake Engineers (IAEE)


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The need to close the bridge often existing between the scientific and engineering communities working in seismic hazard and risk assessment was recognized in the GSHAP planning and the cooperation with the engineering community has been established. The IAEE "World Seismic Safety Initiative" has recognized GSHAP and accepted GSHAP observers at the WSSI Board of Directors (Vienna, 8/94) and at the Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering (Melbourne, 11/95); representatives of the engineering community sit on the GSHAP Steering Committee.

European Countil (EC)


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The EC Open Partial Agreement on Major Disasters has named the CNCPRST of Rabat, one of the GSHAP Regional Centres, as the "centre EuroMediterraneen d’Evaluation et de Prevention du Risque Sismique or Seismic Hazard Assessment "(CEPRIS), with the mandate of coordinating activities in the Ibero-Maghreb and Western Mediterranean areas.

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)


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The WMO Hydrology and Water Resources Department is implementing its "System for Technology Exchange for Natural Disasters" (STEND), an information exchange programme aimed at increasing awareness of available technology through the dissemination of knowledge about the different methodologies used in fields related to natural hazards. The GSHAP Regional Centres have been included in the list of STEND focal points for knowledge transfer and a more close cooperation ie expected in the future, pending the availbility of operation funds in many of the Regional Centres.

Earthquake and Megacities Initiative (EMI)


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The final years of the Decade are shifting the emphasis on the protection of megacities, moving from hazard assessment to engineering applications and risk mitigation strategies. Several UN sponsored initiatives are under way, including the ILP’s "Earthquake and Megacities Initiative". Under request by ICSU and the IDNDR, GSHAP computed in several regions site-specific hazards as input for megacities programs.


STEERING COMMITTEE
The GSHAP implementation and activities were supervised by a Steering Committee listing fifteen renown experts in seismic hazard assessment and earthquake engineering from all the world. The role of many of the Steering Committee members has been instrumental in setting guidelines, conducting regional activities, raising support and participating in the global programs of GSHAP.

DISSEMINATION OF PRODUCTS AND RESULTS

GSHAP on the Web


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Regional reports, GSHAP yearly reports, summaries and maps of seismicity, source zones and seismic hazard are available freely on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/. The page is not final yet, as a few regional products are still missing and the global map will be available in the spring 1999.

GSHAP summary volume and CD-ROM


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The regional reports, detailing the compilation of the databases and of the hazard results in the GSHAP test-areas and regions, are being collected in a special volume, prepared following common guidelines, including also a CD-ROM with the earthquake databases, the seismic source zones and the regional hazard maps. The volume and CD-ROM are scheduled for release in spring 1999, published as a Special Issue of Annali di Geofisica.

Publications


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The dissemination and publication of GSHAP ideas and results started with the GSHAP Volume (Annali di Geofisica, vol. 36, 3-4, 1993; 2000 copies). GSHAP activities and results have been presented at the major international and regional assemblies and meetings. Research papers and articles describing the program’s approach and regional activities have appeared on scientific journals, special volumes and regional bulletins. Sessions dedicated to GSHAP have been hosted by the assemblies of IASPEI, ESC, ASC and SSA and by other international meetings. GSHAP workshops have been organized in all test areas, as listed above.

Reports

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Progress reports and summaries prepared by the Coordinating Centre have been distributed worldwide (7/92, 11/92, 12/93, 2/94, 9/94, 6/95, 4/96, 1/97, 1/9. Periodic summaries have appeared on bulletins and newsletter of IASPEI, ICSU, ILP, AGU.


SUCCESSES & FAILURES
The GSHAP has fulfilled in large part the goals and design principles set in 1992. In addition to the regional and global results and products listed above, the following should be noted:
Also because of GSHAP, the global standards in seismic hazard assessment have markedly improved in the last few years, with specific regards to the implementation of multi-disciplinary information, the refinement of the databases, the standardization of the knowledge of earthquake hazards.
National hazard maps have improved in developed countries involved in across-border cooperation (i.e. in Europe) as well as in Third-World countries with no previous experience in SHA (i.e the African Rift).
GSHAP was very aggressive in promoting multi-national cooperation in all continents, with particular emphasis in critical border areas. Some examples: S. Africa worked together with the African Rift framework in a regional scientific program; Russia, Turkey and Iran cooperated together in the Caucasus; China and India cooperated over many years in a sensitive border area; the Andean countries worked together under a unified framework program.
GSHAP was successful in attracting significant funds to regional SHA. Some examples: NATO financed a scientific meeting in the Caucasus; the first EC-OPA Center was selected in Northern Africa; INTAS and EU funded programs with a large emphasis on coordination.
The GSHAP suffered also setbacks and right criticisms.
It failed to establish efficient large-scale regional programs in areas where significant external funding or local energies were not available (i.e. large parts of the African continent), in areas where the scientific community and the national interests are too strong (N. America), in areas where the political boundaries are still prevailing (Middle East).
The balance between science and application was difficult to achieve, with criticisms of having chosen low scientific standards (from ICSU) clashing against criticisms of not thinking enough about applications (from the UN/IDNDR)
GSHAP often interfered with national agendas and priorities, entering in competition with national programs for funding, hazard standards and agendas; in the end these clashes mostly resulted in improved hazard assessment, but they also created frictions.
While GSHAP focussed on the establishment on regional working frameworks which were very active during the program implementation, the long term future of this cooperation is often doubtful, in absence of appropriate international frameworks, funding and guidelines.
Disciplinary boundaries are reduced but remain strong.
The GSHAP, like other demonstration programs, suffered also from overall limitations in the implementation of the UN/IDNDR program: changing priorities, no inter-project coordination, no plans for follow-up projects implementing the results of the demonstration programs in risk mitigation strategies, lack of significant start-up and operational funding. All these elements have resulted in the GSHAP to operate in a rather independent fashion within the seismological and seismic hazard assessment community. A mid-program review conducted by the IDNDR Scientific and Technical Committee helped in focussing the GSHAP results and applications.

Acknowledgements
GSHAP was developed with the support of international projects and organizations, of national scientific agencies and of research institutions, but especially with the efforts of hundreds of individual scientists (more than 400) willing to devote their time, knowledge and strength to this international endeavour.



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Report released on February 10, 1999, by D. Giardini, GSHAP Coordinator
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Appendix I: Index, GSHAP Summary Volume, Annali di Geofisica, 1999
The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program, D. Giardini
The compilation of the GSHAP map of global seismic hazard, D. Giardini, D. Mayer-Rosa, K. McCue, R. McGuire, K. Shedlock & P. Zhang

Seismic Hazard Map of the Western Hemisphere, K. M. Shedlock & J. G. Tanner

The Seismic Hazard Map of the European-Mediterranean-African region, G. Grünthal, D. Giardini, D. Mayer-Rosa & S. Sellami

Seismic Hazard Map of North and Central America and the Caribbean (GSHAP Region 1), K. M. Shedlock

Seismic Hazard of South America - CERESIS (GSHAP Region 2), A. Giesecke

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Northern Europe (GSHAP Region 3), G. Grünthal

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Iran (GSHAP Region 6), B. Tavakoli & M. Ghafory- Ashtiany

Seismic Hazard of Northern Eurasia (GSHAP Region 7), V.I. Ulomov

Seismic Hazard of Eastern Asia (GSHAP Region , P. Zhang & K. Shedlock

Seismic Hazard Mapping of Australian, the Southwest Pacific and Southern Asia (GSHAP Region 10), K. McCue

Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Northern Andean region, C. Dimaté, L. Drake, A. Fuenzalida, D. Giardini, G. Gruenthal, L. Ocola, H. Rendon & H. Yepes

Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb Region, M.-J. Jiménez, M. García-Fernández, M. Chadi, D. El Foul, A. Izquierdo, J.-M. Martínez-Solares, C. Sousa-Oliveira & B.-A. Tadili

Seismic Hazard Assessment in Eastern and Southern Africa, V. Midzi, D. J. Hlatywayo, L. S. Chapola, F. Kebede, K. Atakan, D. K. Lombe, G. Turyomuru-gyendo & F. A. Tugume

GSHAP seismic hazard assessment for the Adria region, D. Slejko, R. Camassi, I. Cecic, D. Herak, M. Herak, S. Kociu, V. Kouskouna, J. Lapajne, K. Makropoulos, C. Meletti, B. Muco, C. Papaioannou, L. Peruzza, A. Rebez, P. Scandone, E. Sulstarova, N. Voulgaris, M. Zivcic & P. Zupancic

Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Circum-Pannonian basin (EU-CIPAR-QSEZ), R. Musson

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Turkey and the Aegean, M. Erdik

Seismic Hazard Map of the Near East (RELEMR/SESAME/ESC), A-Q. Amrat, E. Ibrahim, D. Mayer-Rosa, G. Papakyriacou, S. Riad, S. Sellami, A. Shapira, W. Hays, M. Al Haddad & M. El Khoubbi

Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Caucasus test area, S. Balassanian, D. Giardini, V. Ulomov, T. Ashirov, T. Chelidze, M. Erdik, A. Gassanov, M. Ghafory-Ashtiany, N. Kondorskaya, G. Molchan, B. Pustovitenko & V. Trifonov

Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Mediterranean Region (SESAME, ICTP n.382), D. Giardini, M. Garcia-Fernandez, K. Macropulos, S. Riad, S. Sellami

The India-China-Tibet GSHAP Test Area, H. Gupta & P. Zhang



Appendix II: List of GSHAP Contacts

Coordination
Coordinator D. Giardini ETH Zurich, CH giardini@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch
Chair, SteerCom H. Gupta NGRI Hyderabad, India director@csngri.ren.nic.in

Test areas and regional centres
South America A. Giesecke CERESIS Lima, Peru giescere@inictel.gob.pe
Andes C. Dimaté INGEOMINAS Bogotà, Colombia cdimate@esmeralda.ingeomin.gov.co
North America K. Shedlock USGS Golden, USA shedlock@gldvxa.cr.usgs.gov
C-N Europe G. Grunthal GFZ Potsdam, DE ggrue@gfz-potsdam.de
Ibero-Maghreb M. Garcia CSIC Barcelona, Spain mgarcia@ija.csic.es
B. Iben Brahim CNCPRST Rabat, Morocco lag@cnr.ac.ma
ADRIA D. Slejko OGS Trieste, Italy dslejko@ogs.trieste.it
C. Pannonian R. Musson BGS Edimburg, UK rmwm@wpo.nerc.ac.uk
Caucasus S. Balassanian NSSP Yerevan, Armenia presidnt@nssp.r.am
N. Eurasia V. Ulomov JIPE Moscow, Russia ulomov@uipe-ras.scgis.ru
Iran M. G. Ashtiany IIEES Tehran, Iran ashtiany@dena.iiees.ac.ir
Africa Rift K. Atakan Bergen Univ. Norway kuvvet@ifjf.uib.no
I. Nyambok Nairobi Univ. Kenya uonseism@arcc.or.ke
C-N Asia P. Zhang SSB Beijing, China peizhen@public3.bta.net.cn
Oceania K. McCue AGSO Canberra, Australia kmccue@agso.gov.au

Global programs
Global Catalogue E. Engdahl USGS Boulder, USA engdahl@gldfs.cr.usgs.gov
Software R. McGuire Risk Eng. Boulder, USA mcguire@riskeng.com
D. Mayer-Rosa ETH Zurich, CH dieter@seismo.ifg.ethz.ch




Appendix III: Acronyms

ADRIA Adria plate GSHAP test area
AGSO Australian Geological Survey Organization
AGU American Geophysical Union
ARW NATO Advanced Research Workshop
BEECD CEC Ct. 94-0497: A basic european earthquake catalogue and database for the evaluation of long-term seismicity and seismic hazard
BGS British Geological Service
CAUCAS INTAS Ct. 94-1644: Test area for seismic hazard assessment in the Caucasus
CEPRIS EC/OPA Centre EuroMediterraneen d’Evaluation et de Prevention di Risque Sismique
CERESIS Centro Sismologico Regional para la America del Sur
CNCPRST Centre National de Coordination et de Planification de la Recherche Scientifique et Technique, Rabat
DACH GSHAP test area covering Germany, Austria and Switzerland
EANHM Eastern Asia Natural Hazards Mapping project
EC/OPA European Council - Open Partial Agreement on Major Disasters
ESARS-WG Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Seismological Working Group
ESC European Seismological Commission (IASPEI)
ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich
GFZ Geo-Forshungs Zentrum, Potsdam
GSC Geological Service of Canada
GSJ Geological Service of Japan
IAEE International Association of Earthquake Engineering
IASPEI International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth Interior
ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions
IDNDR UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
IGC International Geological Congress
IGCP International Geological Correlation Program
IIEES International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology
ILP International Lithosphere Program
ING Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Rome
IRRS Istituto per la Ricerca sul Rischio Sismico, Milan
ISC Internation Seismological Centre
IUGG International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
IUGS International Union of Geological Sciensces
JIPE Joint Institutes of Physics of the Earth, Moscow
NEIC US National Earthquake Information Centre
NGRI National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad
NSF US National Science Foundation
OGS Osservatorio Geofisico Sperimentale, Trieste
PAIGH Pan-American Institute of Geography and History
PGA Peak Ground Acceleration
PILOTO CEC Ct. 94-0103: Pilot project for regional earthquake monitoring and seismic hazard assessment (EuMe-Andean regions)
RADIUS Risk Assessmentand Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters project
RELEMR Reduction of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region project
SESAME UNESCO/IGCP 382 Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazard Assess. of the Mediterranean
SHA Seismic Hazard Assessment
SSA Seismological Society of America
SSB State Seismological Bureau, Beijing
STEND WMO System for Technology Exchange for Natural Disasters
UNAM Universitad National Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City
UNESCO UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
USGS United States Geological Survey
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WSSI World Seismic Safety Initiative

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