EMME - Earthquake Model of the Middle East region

EMME - Earthquake Model of the Middle East region

Postby salsinawi » Thu Mar 13, 2014 12:37 pm

EMME - Earthquake Model of the Middle East region:
Hazard, Risk Assessment, Economics & Mitigation

http://www.emme-gem.org
management@emme-gem.org

The number of people died in earthquakes and tsunamis worldwide in the last decade is about half a million, based on recent statistics. The majority of this life loss occurred in developing countries where population and urbanization is increasing rapidly without any major control, there by also yielding a high risk for the future. The Middle East region is located at the junction of major tectonic plates, namely the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates, resulting in very high tectonic activity. Some of the major earthquake disasters in human history occurred in the Middle East, affecting most countries in the region. Being one of the most seismically active regions of the world, Middle East, extending from Turkey to India, is also a key region in terms of urbanization, energy reserves and industrialization trend. The region under consideration involves world’s most populated capitals and cities with key economical importance such as Istanbul, Baghdad, Tehran, Jeddah, Riyadh, Cairo, Kabul, Karachi and Lahore.

EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) aims at the assessment of earthquake hazard, the associated risk in terms of structural damages, casualties and economic losses and also at the evaluation of the effects of relevant mitigation measures in the Middle East region in concert with the aims and tools of GEM. The EMME project will encompass several modules such as the Hazard Module, Seismic Risk Module, Socio- Economic Loss Module and the development of an IT infrastructure or platform for the integration and application of modules under consideration. The methodologies and software developments within the context of EMME will be compatible with GEM in order to enable the integration process. As such, a comprehensive interaction between the two projects is foreseen.

EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) is a JTI (Japan Tobacco International) sponsored international project aiming at the assessment of seismic hazard, the associated risk in terms of structural damages, casualties and economic losses and also at the evaluation of the effects of relevant mitigation measures in the Middle East region.
Over 420,000 people died worldwide in the last 8 years due to earthquakes and tsunamis. Most of the deaths occurred in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth and urbanization. By 2050, the whole projected global population increase – over 3 billion people – will concentrate in urban areas in developing countries. In addition, while large urban areas are doubling in size every 15 years, the area of unchecked settlements built without appropriate seismic safety provisions is increasing every 7 years.

The Middle East region, extending from Turkey to India, is a key component of the urbanization trend. The list of cities compiled by the UN forecasted to reach a population exceeding 5 mil inhabitants by 2015 (and in some case reaching much higher numbers, in excess of 20 mil) includes capitals and cities of key economic importance in the Middle East area: Istanbul, Baghdad, Tehran, Jedda, Riyadh, Cairo, Kabul, Karachi and Lahore.


The Middle East region is characterized by elevated seismicity. The tectonic activity is dominated by the convergence of the African and Indian Ocean plates with the Eurasian plate, resulting in a very active belt of earthquakes affecting the whole margin from Turkey to the Himalayas


Some of the major earthquake disasters in human history occurred in the Middle East, affecting most countries in the region.

List of major earthquakes in the region

Date Location Country Fatalities
1138 Aleppo Syria 230’000
856 Damghan Iran 200’000
893 Ardabil Iran 150’000
1948 Ashgabat Turkmenistan 110’000
2005 Kashmir Pakistan 87’000
1667 Shamakhi Azerbaijan 80’000
1727 Tabriz Iran 77’000
1990 Manjil Iran 35’000
1939 Erzincan Turkey 33’000
2003 Bam Iran 30’000
1988 Spitak Armenia 25’000
1999 Izmit Turkey 25’000


Particularly worrisome is the destruction produced in recent earthquakes, often affecting also modern buildings constructed with seismic provisions (below an example from the 1999 M7.6 Izmit earthquake, Turkey), a clear sign that society has yet to learn how to cope with large earthquakes.
As consequence of the probability of earthquake occurrence, of the often poor construction standards and of the lack of proper mitigation strategies, the Middle East is the most seismically exposed region worldwide, where a devastating earthquake could produce up to a million casualties.

The overall aim of EMME is to enable earthquake risk mitigation in the region in terms of damages, casualties, and socio-economic losses through homogenization of the seismo-tectonic information, uniform computation of the earthquake hazard, compilation of data regarding the built environment and uniform assessment seismic risk and increase awareness in the region through proper dissemination and capacity building.

EMME will set a uniform, independent standard for earthquake hazard and risk assessment at a national and regional scale. Its implementation will be based on a combination of national and regional elements, and will integrate developments on the fronts of scientific and engineering knowledge as well as IT processes and infrastructure.

EMME development will focus on three integrated modules on seismic hazard, risk and economics, and one transversal action of capacity building and outreach.

Integration and harmonization across the whole region and all the activities of the project, and technology transfer in particular, is critical for EMME tools to achieve uniformity, efficiency, and relevance. This goal will be secured through different measures.
Training
Technology transfer will occur through regular training sessions, both in-person workshops and distance learning. Training workshops will be hosted at all regional centers, with most training workshops scheduled to occur at primary regional centers. Distance learning will also be hosted by the regional centers. Scientists and technical personnel from the participating institutions will be trained in aspects of data archiving and exchange, in the routine analysis of earthquake data, and in the assessment of seismic hazard, risk and losses.

Expert participation

National experts from all countries of the Middle East will participate in working groups and expert elicitation, bringing together their expertise while learning from other experts in the area.
Global integration

EMME roots in the past Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, a UN-IDNDR demonstration project, 1992-1999) where some of the Middle East countries (notably Iran, Turkey and India) worked actively towards the development of common regional standards. However, political and technical constraints prevented from tackling the whole Middle East region with a harmonized approach in GSHAP. More than a decade later, EMME will develop common standards in close coordination with GEM (the new Global Earthquake Model initiated by the OECD), with the new European project for hazard harmonization (EC FP7 SHARE), and will coordinate efforts with the central Asia countries through a program sponsored by the German Foreign Affairs.

EMME aims to enable earthquake risk reduction through the following specific objectives:

• Calculate earthquake hazard uniformly and with the highest standard
• Rigorously validate earthquake and shaking probabilities using regional and global data
• Communicate earthquake risk clearly, accurately, and transparently to all users
• Integrate local expertise in a regional and global context
• Monitor and update changing infrastructure and vulnerability
• Build capacity in the whole region
• Dialogue with decision-makers
• Implement EMME as part of the Global Earthquake Model program initiated by the OECD

EMME will enable users to take specific actions that achieve risk-reducing outcomes:

• Improved earthquake preparation and response
• Adoption and enforcement of building codes
• Seismic mitigation measures
• Accurate post-earthquake alerts and assessment of direct and indirect losses
• Increased insurance usage
• Uniform comparability of earthquake risk across multiple geographies

EMME’s long-term expected impact will be a more structured approach to earthquake risk mitigation, leading to reduced monetary losses and casualties. Improved building construction practice and efficient risk allocation will lead to overall reduction of losses. Governmental policies for risk mitigations will be based on wider awareness and on more sound, integrated knowledge. Furthermore, a more robust post-earthquake financial infrastructure will reduce the reliance of developing nations on charity, thus speeding their recovery and avoiding a downward spiral of environmental hazards and economic development.

EMME will be a living model, rather than a static map, with a flexible, modular architecture to allow addition and updating of components and datasets, and to maintain it continuously as state-of-the-art and in conformance with national developments and new international standards. EMME will allow multiple user types to derive updated products and outputs, and keep up with changing requirements.

The users and beneficiaries of EMME are broad, and include all those who make decisions based on earthquake risk: seismic agencies, engineers and practitioners, government officials, insurance and finance industries, emergency responders, risk professionals, homeowners, investors, and the population at large.

The project will be composed of three research modules and a phase in which an IT infrastructure will be established for the application of the methodologies developed in each module. EMME will set a uniform, independent standard methodology for seismic hazard and risk assessment both in national and regional scales. The implementation of the methodology proposed in the project will be based on a combination of regional and global elements, and will integrate developments of scientific and engineering knowledge as well as IT processes and infrastructure. EMME will concentrate on three integrated modules: hazard, risk and socio -economic impact as well as on computational infrastructure and model building.

WP1 - Earthquake Catalog

Reliable seismic hazard studies depend on having a robust earthquake catalog. The longer the extent of the catalog and the more reliable the parameters are, the better it is for those doing seismic hazard analysis. There are two kinds of earthquake catalog: one is the instrumental or recent catalog and the other is the historical catalog. In this study, instrumental or recent catalog refers to the time when seismic monitoring existed while historical refers to the pre-instrumental period.
In the content of this work package, it is decided to build a new catalog for the middle-east region by combining the original ones, and using our opinions about catalog reliability to eliminate duplicate records when an earthquake was listed in more than one catalog. Since attenuation relations, completeness, and magnitude-conversion rules all vary regionally, we decided to build two catalogs: a moment-magnitude (Mw) catalog and a body-wave-magnitude (Mb) and surface-wave-magnitude (Ms) catalog.

WP2 - Seismic Sources

EMME will use the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment approach. In this approach the first parameter requirement is the definition of seismic source zones. A seismic source zone is a seismically homogenous area, where any location point within this area has the same probability of being the epicentre of a future earthquake.
The delineation of seismic source zones can be accomplished providing that we have a through knowledge of geology, active tectonics, and complete record of seismicity (paleo + historical+ instrumental) of the region under consideration. The geodetic data obtained by Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements have also become a valuable data set to complement the other data sets in seismic hazard studies.
The most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones will be its dynamic character. This very important characteristic will be accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis. In order to implement this strategy every data will be parameterized and input into the database with a specific format.

WP3 - GMPEs

One of the goals in EMME is to devise methodologies for the estimation of seismic risk and loss that are tailored for different cities in the Middle East and Caucuses. To this end, the ground-motion models that provide hazard information to these methods should yield accurate ground motion estimates with low dispersion through simple functional forms that use the essential geophysical and seismological information. Based on this fact, the strategy of the work plan in developing the regional ground-motion models is based on the assumption that the tectonic regimes, seismic rates and data availability are extremely variable in the Middle East.
The main objectives of this work package are :
• To derive region specific ground-motion prediction equations for the Middle East and Caucuses (region of interest in the EMME project) by considering various ground-motion parameters that involve spectral acceleration, displacement and peak ground-motion values.
• To develop region specific tools useful for mapping local site conditions based on
Vs30 proxies, which are derived from the compilations of shallow geology and topography maps.

WP4 - Seismic Risk

s indicated in the Implementation Plan of EMME Project, the risk module will consist of two Work Packages: Seismic Risk Assessment (WP4), and Deterministic City Scenarios (WP5). The process will be performed by means of either deterministic risk scenarios for specific large earthquakes depending on the models developed in hazard module or probabilistic approach based on the same models and synthetic earthquake catalogues developed in hazards module. The seismic risk will be regionally evaluated in WP4, while it will be rigorously computed for selected cities in WP5.
The objective of earthquake risk assessment and loss estimation studies is to assess the natural hazard and consequent risk due to the earthquake quantitatively. The output of these studies shall be used as a planning tool to execute management and mitigation policies of seismic disasters and damages within an area of interest.
• On the other hand the compilation of the inventories of the elements at risk forms one of the major components of seismic risk assessment, data under consideration will be obtained using existing databases and/or existing databases will be updated depending on the quality and quantity of the available data. Again the decisions concerning the determination of type of methodology and data to be used in the project will be taken under the guidance of the regional experts. The elements at risk consist of the building stock, population, and infrastructure.


Earthquakes are one of the most destructive unavoidable natural hazards. An earthquake is a sudden and violent shaking of the earth due to a release of large elastic strain energy spreading out through seismic waves and travelling through the body and along the surface of the earth. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of natural hazards. Many incidents indicated that unplanned urban growth, localized concentration of population and infrastructure, negligence of construction standards, and the lack of awareness at the public and the institutional levels have together resulted in enhanced seismic vulnerability of these countries.

City Scenarios working package (WP5) is one of the main components of the Seismic Risk Module of EMME- Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region Project. As part of this component, deterministic seismic risk assessment will be carried out for risks associated with specified earthquake scenarios. The choice of the scenarios will depend on the results of hazard de-aggregation of Work Package 7. In parallel with the GEM1 project6, scenario assessments will be conducted for calibration /validation purposes for selected cities (such as Istanbul) for which inventory, site condition and vulnerability information are available.

WP5 - City Scenarios

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive unavoidable natural hazards. An earthquake is a sudden and violent shaking of the earth due to a release of large elastic strain energy spreading out through seismic waves and travelling through the body and along the surface of the earth. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of natural hazards. Many incidents indicated that unplanned urban growth, localized concentration of population and infrastructure, negligence of construction standards, and the lack of awareness at the public and the institutional levels have together resulted in enhanced seismic vulnerability of these countries.
City Scenarios working package (WP5) is one of the main components of the Seismic Risk Module of EMME- Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region Project. As part of this component, deterministic seismic risk assessment will be carried out for risks associated with specified earthquake scenarios. The choice of the scenarios will depend on the results of hazard de-aggregation of Work Package 7. In parallel with the GEM1 project6, scenario assessments will be conducted for calibration /validation purposes for selected cities (such as Istanbul) for which inventory, site condition and vulnerability information are available.

P6 - Socio-Economic Impact

The progress in the Socio- Economic Impact module of EMME is limited with compilation of available data and models in the region. Since the available data are very limited in the region the progress is below expectations. However as Socio- Economic Impact is one of the most important components in Seismic Risk Mitigation, special emphasis is planned to be given to the activities of this module in the next phases of EMME projectThe progress in the Socio- Economic Impact module of EMME is limited with compilation of available data and models in the region. Since the available data are very limited in the region the progress is below expectations. However as Socio- Economic Impact is one of the most important components in Seismic Risk Mitigation, special emphasis is planned to be given to the activities of this module in the next phases of EMME project.

The progress in the Socio- Economic Impact module of EMME is limited with compilation of available data and models in the region. Since the available data are very limited in the region the progress is below expectations. However as Socio- Economic Impact is one of the most important components in Seismic Risk Mitigation, special emphasis is planned to be given to the activities of this module in the next phases of EMME project.


A Global Earthquake Model

GEM is a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD-GSF). GEM aims to be the uniform, independent standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk worldwide. With committed backing from academia, governments, and industry, GEM will contribute to achieving profound, lasting reductions in earthquake risk worldwide.
GEM will be the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. All who face risk, from homeowners to governments, need accurate and transparent risk information before they will take mitigating action. By providing the information in a manner that is understandable to all users, GEM aims to raise awareness, lead to adoption and enforcement of building codes, promote seismic mitigation, and stimulate insurance use.
GEM will be the first global, open source model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence.
It will take five years to build the first working global earthquake model – including corresponding tools, software and datasets. The work started in 2009 and will be finished at the end of 2013. Construction occurs in various stages that are partly overlapping in time.



• The pilot project GEM1 (January 2009 – March 2010) will generate GEM’s first products and initial model building infrastructure. Global components will establish a common set of definitions, strategies, standards, quality criteria and formats for the compilation of databases that serve as an input to the global earthquake model. They are addressed by international consortia that respond to calls for proposals on Hazard, Risk and Socio-Economic Impact.
• Global components will provide preliminary data on a global scale, but on a local scale, regional and national programmes will provide more detailed and reliable data.

• Regional Programmes are projects with targeted funding taking place in various regions of the world; EMME is one of the ongoing ones, several others are under discussion.
• The data produced on a regional and national scale will be carefully quality-controlled and integrated into the global models. The actual development of the model will occur using a common, web-based platform for dynamic sharing of tools and resources, in order to create software and online tools as end-products. The global earthquake model will be tested and evaluated before its official release; the testing procedure will involve the establishment of scientific experiments that are reproducible, transparent, and set up within a controlled environment.

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EMME / Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region:
Hazard, Risk Assessment, Economics & Mitigation
EMME Earthquake Model of Middle East

Final Meeting 30thSeptember 2ndOctober 2013

Topic

EMME Project Final Meeting

Date Monday 30th September2013
Location
Boğazici University, South Campus, Albert Long Hall
:
D. Giardini
Presentation and Evaluation of EMME Project

:M. Erdik
Presentation and Evaluation of EMME Project
M. Zare
Seismic Catalogue

L. Gülen
Active Faults, Geology, Geodesy’

S. Akkar
Ground Motion Modelling

:
Coffee Break

L. Danciu
Source Models and Activity Rates for Hazard Assessment
Lunch
:
K. Şeşetyan M.Demircioğlu / L. Danciu
Seismic Hazard

Assessment Results and Discussion on the results
C. Tüzün

Building Inventories, Classification, Vulnerabilities

Coffee Break

S. Lodi

Seismic Risk Assessment Results
M. Ashtiany

SocioEconomic Impact

Discussion

End of Meeting

EMME Steering Committee Meeting

End of Day 1


Tuesday1st October
:
Welcome Speeches

D. Giardini
Presentation and Evaluation of EMME Project

M. Erdik
Earthquake Hazard and Risk in EMME Region

R. Jaradat
City Scenario Applications


Coffee Break

S.Lodi
Karachi City Scenario


R. Helou
Tyr City Scenario

M. Ashtiany
Mashhad City Scenario
.
Tsereteli TbilisiCity Scenario

G. Hovhannisyan

Yerevan City Scenario
M. Awawdeh

Irbid City Scenario

Coffee break

Round Table Discussion

Public Declarations

End of meeting


Transfer to Le Meridien Hotel for Gala Dinner

EMME GALA DINNER

Wednesday

Boğazici University,
South Campus, Albert Long Hall

EMME Revision and Future Work Planning

End of Day 3

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EMME session in the upcoming ECEES meeting
From: Karin Sesetyan <ksesetyan@gmail.com>
Dear colleagues,
Although a last minute notice, we would like to draw your attention to the ECEE Special Session no 5 "EMME (Earthquake Model of Middle East: from Seismic Hazard to Seismic Risk) at the Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, a joint event of the 15th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and the 34th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission. The conference will be held in Istanbul, Turkey on 24- 29 August 2014 (http://www.2eceesistanbul.org/).
We cordially invite the work package leaders as well as all the partners/contributors to present the work carried out in our four years project. Researchers conducting related studies in the region are also most welcome.
The session abstract is given below. Both oral and poster presentations are welcome.
The deadline for abstract submission is the 1st of April 2014. However we hope that a few days extension will be possible for our session.
Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues you think might be interested.
We look forward to seeing you in Istanbul!
With our best wishes

Session conveners
Domenico Giardini,
Mustafa Erdik,
Karin Sesetyan,
Laurentiu Danciu,
Christis Chrisostomou,
Ata Elias
Dear all,
Please note that the Abstract submission deadline for the ESC and Special sessions during the Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (2ECEES) is extended until 11 April 2014.
Best regards,
Karin Sesetyan
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EMME (Earthquake Model of Middle East: From Seismic Hazard to Seismic Risk)
The Middle East and Caucasus regions are located at the junction of major tectonic plates, namely the African, Arabian and Eurasian plates resulting in very high seismic activity, where some of the major earthquake disasters in the human history (856 Damghan, 893 Ardabil, 1138 Aleppo, 1667 Shamaki, 1727 Tabriz, 1939 Erzincan, 1988 Spitak, 1990 Manjil, 1999 Kocaeli, 2003 Bam and 2005 Kashmir) took place. The same region today is one of the fastest growing sections of the world in terms of urbanization, economy, industrialization and power generation. The region under consideration involves world’s most populated capitals and cities with key economic importance. This ever increasing exposure coupled with a rather fragile inventory of buildings and a high seismic hazard necessitates a comprehensive and concerted effort for the management of the ensuing seismic risk.
EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) Project aimed the assessment of earthquake hazard and the associated risk in terms of building damages, casualties and economic losses that would lead to the development and eventual application of the risk mitigation measures in the Middle East - Caucasus Region. Incorporation of the local expertize in terms of seismotectonic knowledge as well as characterization of the built environment exposed to seismic risk was one of the key components of the project that involved participation of local experts from more than ten countries in the region.
This session aims to bring together a wide range of scientists and practitioners to present the results obtained in the different work packages of the project as well as to create possibility of future collaborations with scientists working on the seismic hazard and risk in the region. As such contributions from the partners of the EMME project as well as from all regional experts working on similar subjects in the region and studies that would elucidate end-user needs and perspectives are encouraged
salsinawi
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